The 2013 hurricane season is being predicted to have more activity than the median 1981-2010 seasons. They estimate about 9 hurricanes, 18 named storms, 95 named storm days, 40 hurricane days, 4 major hurricanes and 9 major hurricane days. The probability for one major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean is 61% (average for the last century is 42%). The predictions indicate that significant warming has occurred across the tropical Atlantic during the past two months and the El Nino atmospheric force that inhibits storm formation is not likely to emerge this season which runs from June 1 to November 30. Photo: DDM

Forecast

Forecasters expect Tropical Storm Andrea to move northeastward and make landfall near the Big Bend of Florida Thursday evening. Thereafter, acceleration to the northeast is expected. Andrea should become extra tropical late Friday as it passes by the Outer Banks of North Carolina. It should pass the Canadian Maritimes as an extra tropical system late Saturday and early Sunday.

Aircraft data indicate that tropical storm force winds are occurring on the east side. Maximum sustained winds are currently estimated at 40 mph. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Andrea is likely to have maximum sustained winds near 45 mph at landfall in Florida. The strongest winds and heaviest rains will be located to the right (or east) of the path of the center.

The greatest threat to the Florida Peninsula will be heavy rainfall over the next 36 hours. The strongest winds should be confined to the beaches and offshore areas. As the low center tracks up the east coast on Friday and Saturday, the strongest winds will remain to its east out over the ocean.

Expected Impacts Onshore

Florida Peninsula

Rainfall: Over the next 36-48 hours, many areas are likely to see 2-4 inches of additional rainfall with isolated totals to 6 inches. Some areas along the coast between Tampa and Ft. Myers could see 4-6 inches of rain with isolated totals of 8-10 inches. These rains are likely to cause localized flooding.

Wind: Sustained winds of 30 mph to 40 mph with gusts of 45 mph to 50 mph are likely across portions of the northern and central Florida Peninsula as well as the eastern Panhandle. The strongest winds are expected late Thursday through the overnight hours Thursday night. The strongest winds are expected along coastal areas of the Gulf Coast from Key West to Naples to the Tampa Bay region. Some scattered power outages lasting for a few hours are possible.

Storm Surge: Tides of 1 to 3 feet above normal are likely in areas of onshore flow in the Florida Keys and the Gulf Coast of the Florida peninsula late tonight through Thursday night. This is may cause some minor coastal flooding.

This system is no threat to the Virgin Islands however; Residents are urged to make preparations as the season has got off to an early start.

The Department of Disaster Management will continue to monitor any potential systems and advise the public accordingly. Please visit the Department’s website at www.bviddm.com and subscribe for future updates.