On the forecast track, Ernesto is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands this morning and near or over the US and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by this evening, August 13, 2024. Photo: Zoom Earth

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Virgin Islands as a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic continues to draw closer. Photo: DDM

The Department of Disaster Management (DDM) said on the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, August 13, 2024, and approach the US Virgin Islands and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday evening. Photo: Zoom Earth

At 5:00 AM, the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 61.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h). A west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so.

After passing Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, Ernesto is forecast to turn northward over the western Atlantic.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Ernesto could reach hurricane strength by Thursday, August 15, 2024, over the waters north of the Greater Antilles.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the centre.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations in the Leeward Islands is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Rainfall, Storm Surge & Swells

DDM said Tropical Storm Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over portions of the Leeward and Virgin Islands.

It also said a storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the Virgin Islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Swells generated by Ernesto will likely begin to affect portions of the Leeward Islands beginning in the next several hours. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, DDM advised.

See previous article published August 12, 2024

Tropical Storm Watch issued for VI

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Virgin Islands as a tropical disturbance in the Atlantic continues to draw closer.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

According to the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), at 5:00 AM, the disturbance was centered near latitude 14.4 North, and longitude 52.5 West. The system is moving toward the west near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.

DDM said on the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across portions of the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, August 13, 2024, and approach the US Virgin Islands and Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression later today or tonight and become a tropical storm as it nears the Leeward Islands.