The tropical in the northern Atlantic wave is currently not a threat to the Virgin Islands. Photo: DDM/Facebook

The Virgin Islands Department of Disaster Management (DDM) has announced that it continues to monitor a strong tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic, which forecasters expect may be near the northern Leeward Islands by next Friday, June 23, 2023. Photo: National Hurricane Centre

According to the Department of Disaster Management (DDM), today, June 18, 2023, environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two.

This system is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through the middle part of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

 The wave is currently not a threat to the Virgin Islands.

See previous article published June 17, 2023

DDM monitoring strong tropical wave over far Eastern Tropical Atlantic 

The Virgin Islands (VI) Department of Disaster Management (DDM) has announced that it continues to monitor a strong tropical wave over the far Eastern Tropical Atlantic, which forecasters expect may be near the northern Leeward Islands by next Friday, June 23, 2023.

“A strong tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic that is located along 27.5W, or to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. The disturbance is forecast to track in a west-to-west-northwesterly direction at around 15 mph over the next week,” the DDM said in an update today, June 17, 2023. 

It added that there is a good model agreement that the disturbance will develop a low-level circulation center at some point as it tracks across the Tropical Atlantic over the next few days, “Forecasters are predicting it to become a tropical depression as early as Monday of next week and then possibly a weak tropical storm prior to reaching the northeastern Caribbean Sea.” 

DDM further detailed that the disturbance is forecast to be moving along the southern periphery of a ridge of high pressure to its north over the next several days. 

System is expected to turn north 

“By the end of next week, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken. As this occurs, the system is expected to turn to the north. The latest model guidance shows that this northward turn could occur before it reaches the northeast Caribbean Sea but there is still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the turn. This system is not expected to move westward across the Caribbean and toward the Gulf of Mexico.

Further analysis has revealed that a turn in the track to the north into the open waters of the Atlantic is still the likely scenario after it reaches or nears the northeast Caribbean Sea. The latest model guidance also continues to show the system weakening as it approaches the northeastern Caribbean Sea.

DDM assured that there is now a 40 percent chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours and then an 80 percent chance of tropical development within the next week, according to Meteorologist John Hale.