Dickson Igwe. Photo: Provided

In the current party dynamic of Virgin Islands politics, the idea of the successful independent candidate is, putting it as simply as possible: highly unlikely. This is so because of historic trends the world over, and even locally. In the past three electoral cycles in the Virgin Islands, not a single independent candidate has been successful.

Considering that fact, the first historic trend that tells the story, why this is, is a narrative that states that since the Second World War, once a two party system is in place in any Western democracy, it has been a tough task indeed, to change that modus Vivendi. Just travel around the Western political map Post World War 2. One will see this trend. The experience of Russia, Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean has been that any semblance of democracy had to be pried from the jaws of autocracy and one man rule.

Power and politics in these regions have been dominated by either one powerful personality, one political group, or the military. In other words, dictatorship, tyranny, and authoritarian rule, have been the norm in these geographies since 1945. This writer would have been arrested, or even worse, had he been living in Russia, China, or Indonesia, typing away on political stories, the way he loves to.

Ok, circa the Virgin Islands of mid 2013, and know this fact of political human behavior. In this rich and small island democracy, Joe Voter will always be very skeptical about throwing his vote away on some airy fairy candidate with a notion that is usually based on the politics of idealism. Sadly, modern politics is not about ideals, crucial as ideals are to building strong societies. No, politics essentially is about hard choices in the game of power. Politics is a very rough business indeed.

Now, another option in the game of power is the entrance of a third political party into the field of war. This has had mixed results in the West. In the USA, a third political party may appear on and off, usually sponsored by a super wealthy individual. However, the two party setting is so strong, with various groups and demographics oriented towards one or the other main political organization that the third party frequently goes crashing into the barriers, bursting into flames.

In the UK, the third political force, the Liberal Democrats has only ever tasted real power, after decades in the doldrums, very recently. Yes, not until very recently, when it formed a coalition with the present Conservative party. So the success record of third parties is not the best. What they do is act as spoilers in an election, by taking away support from one of the main political blocks. 

That does not mean it will not work in the Virgin Islands. But for a third party to have any hope, it will have to get the support of some old heads. Too much youth will not be accepted by older demographics. That will mean some high powered endorsements by highly respected Virgin Islanders from the older generation. Then it will have to feature the best and the brightest.

Yes, it will certainly not be easy: getting first class candidates to run in all districts and at large seats. A third party will have to show Joe Voter that it is a plausible, aggressive, and dynamic alternative: that will mean money, lots of money for advertising and public relations: it will have to get the backing of a good proportion of big business. It will also have to begin frenetic fundraising activity soon. And it will have to unite around one leader who must show herself or himself tough, charismatic, and capable.

The current incumbents have a strong team, and much talent waiting in the wings, that powerful outfit will not need any new infusion into their body politic.

Another reality in the current political dynamic is this one: certain district seats appear sure bets for the opposition: for the moment. The fact is that the opposition base has been strengthened owing to the current unpopularity of the incumbents with certain key demographics. This is very normal at midterm however, so the current ruling powers have no need for undue concern.

In a swing electorate, any shift in the political landscape, tends to the opposite side of the spectrum. It can swing right back, once certain exposes are brought to the fore by an aggressive election campaign: essentially a shootout at the OK Corral. This is when the dirt beneath the fingernails is revealed. When certain files that have been kept closed and hidden from the eyes of Joe Voter are suddenly pulled from dusty shelves, and when various secrets and intrigues, are unearthed, and brought into the sunlight. Yes, politics is never a game for the feint hearted.

Yes, the next political war is going to be a very bloody affair indeed. Anyone who believes the march into the Premiership will be smooth sailing is very much deceived. The power game remains wide open, notwithstanding what some hopefuls may assert. Stakes are always very high in politics. Power never gives: it takes! There are many who cannot wait to get their snouts into the proverbial trough. One can see the hunger in their eyes already. Greed is a clear factor in Virgin Islands politics. So Tom Taxpayer better get out of the emotional closet and keep his eyes and ears wide open. Choose the least hungry rat to guard his precious cheese.

Another development: it appears a natural leader is evolving in the opposition who is proving a very effective legislator indeed; and savvy on the issues of the day. However, the Achilles Heel of the opposition remains the question of leadership. It must get over this immense hurdle in order to prepare for war in 2015. Not unless it is ready to allow the current leader and elder statesman run at age 80 or thereabouts. Nelson Mandela was 76 when he became President of South Africa. He was 82 when he stepped down from power.

The question on that matter is this one: is Joe Voter willing to be ruled by an aging KING? In any event, there have been many elder statesmen who have led their countries at 80 and over, and done excellent jobs. So nothing can be ruled out.

As mentioned in a previous story, the incumbents have time: lots of it. Time is a very precious commodity in politics, and they still have the advantage of incumbency to change the political landscape over the next two years. However, to get an untested organization into the halls of power means a third party does not have much time to get its act together.