Dickson Igwe. Photo: Provided

Politicians ignore these three factors at their peril. Possessing a national vision and policy credentials are important for success in politics. However likeability and trust trump vision and competence as essential ingredients of success at the ballot box.

The November 2016 Presidential Election in the USA is promising to be more interesting, and even more entertaining, than any presidential race of past decades.

First, the idea of two dynasties: the Bush and Clinton dynasties are a poor proposal for independents, according to a number of polls. Independents, who decide the outcome of elections, will not vote for either King Bush or Queen Hillary.

Royalty is a great American affair and passion, but only as long as it stays across the North Atlantic, and on a certain island off the coast of Europe that once ruled the world.

Then, the prospect of a Top Entertainer, TV savvy hotelier, and resort owner, called Donald Trump, as US President, can no longer be ‘sneered at’. And a second black president, a black Republican, a brilliant neurosurgeon named Ben Carson, would indeed be just as historic as a US President with a Kenyan father possessing a very African name.

This is the year of the outsider. In the UK Jeremy Corbin, the new Opposition Leader has started a movement on the left inspiring a new demographic of young voters and those working class Britons increasingly left out of the much loved conservative top down, supply side economic model. Similarly, the US is seeing a new breed of politician driven by angry white males on the right: Donald Trump and Ben Carson. On the US left Bernie Sanders is spokesman for Democrats who cannot stand the status quo.

In any event, Hillary Clinton appears well on her way to becoming the Democratic Presidential Nominee, and first US female President, but only on present trends. These trends will change in 12 months, and unpredictably. Prophecy in politics is the proverbial “mugs game,” especially with an election that is a year away.

OK. There is a caveat for a President Hillary Clinton. Clinton’s polling numbers, despite her clear lead over Democratic rivals, show an increasing dislike for the Former Secretary of State and leading Democratic Contender for the US Presidency by voters. Clinton also has a trust deficit. A significant majority of Americans neither like nor trust Mrs. Clinton.

Hillary Clinton is a model of study for all aspiring politicians. The Clinton Model shows that possessing strong demographic advantages, great organization, and exceptionally plausible policy and economic credentials, are not guaranteed to get a candidate over the hurdle of victory, if the candidate is disliked and distrusted by the voter.

Hillary has an ace up her sleeve however. The Democratic Party, of which Hillary is most likely to become presidential nominee- if there is no smoking gun in the email and Benghazi saga - possesses very powerful demographic advantages.
For example US blacks overwhelmingly vote Democratic. The Democratic Party has an institutional lock on the black vote. This is a product of history going back to the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s.

One can only wonder why blacks vote Democratic instinctively! Blacks have had very poor outcomes under the Barack Obama Presidency. Black inner city areas remain killing fields for black children and youth in black on black crime. Black poverty has increased since Obama became president with the average white up to 22 times wealthier than the average black. So this allegiance by blacks to the Democratic Party is arguably irrational.

And Latino voters, weary about Donald Trump and his migration soundings will give the democrats their overwhelming support come November 2016. Latino voters also suffer the poverty and social disadvantage metrics that blacks suffer.
The democrats will also get the white liberal vote consisting, the northeast elites, academics, leftists, and gays.

Then there is a gender factor. Hillary will become the first female president if elected. That is an attractive proposal for female voters.

Still, Hillary has a problem despite overwhelmingly favourable demographics.

Steve Tobak put it perfectly in the online media blog Entrepreneur, on August 5, 2015, “don’t underestimate likeability as a factor in winning elections. In business it doesn’t matter so much. In politics it’s huge. If voters don’t like you to begin with, forget about victory at the polls.”

Tobak contrasted Hillary with Barack Obama. “As a campaigner Obama had remarkable charisma and leadership presence. His message of hope and change resonated with voters. Voters believed Obama and they believed in Obama. That is why Americans voted for Obama as President, twice.”

Clinton is still the Democratic frontrunner this November 2015. However, Clinton’s favourability ratings are at an all time low according to the latest Wall Street and NBC polls.

Hillary faces a double whammy. It goes like this. It is bad enough not being liked by voters. It is worse not being trusted by Jack and Jill. In a Quinnipac University Poll of July-August 2015, only 37% of US voters viewed Clinton as honest and trustworthy. 57% of Americans do not trust Clinton.

Now what makes this a terrible problem for the Clinton Camp is that independent voters are even more unlikely to trust Hillary Clinton! In another Quinnipac Poll, Clinton is trailing key Republican candidates in the swing states. Swing states determine the final result of a US election. Clinton’s numbers are down with female voters too. And women were supposed to be her strongest demographic.

Interestingly, Clinton is doing best among African American and Latino voters. But Clinton has seen a marked decline in her numbers among white women.

The problem with the Clintons is the trust deficit. It probably began when Bill Clinton denied sexual romps on the plush Oval Office carpeting with one Monica Lewinsky. Then, as Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton broke the rules by using her own email server and address. To make matters worse, Hillary claimed that “none of the emails contained classified information.” Security experts believe that is implausible.

There is another matter: Hypocrisy.

Tobak describes how, “Clinton has positioned herself as a champion of the 99% who understands their needs.” This is not credible according to Tobak. The Clintons made 28 million USD in 2014 on speeches alone. The fee for a speech leveled off at 200,000 USD.

Clinton stated recently that, “Americans have fought their way back from tough economic times but the deck is still stacked in favour of those at the top. Everyday Americans need a champion. I want to be that champion.”

However voters in the 90% do not believe Hillary understands their needs and problems. Hillary is very much one of the 1%. Clinton has benefitted enormously from privilege, and her national and international connections.

Tobak ends his narrative by stating that, “Hillary Clinton is not the kind of person most of us would want to go out and have a few laughs with. Clinton comes across as cold and aloof. “Recent revelations by ex personnel in her secret service detail describe her as a “ruthless, vicious, and impossible.” Her smiling face and friendly demeanor are just a public façade hiding an ‘abrasive personality.’

Tobak believes that Americans will not elect a President that they do not like.

Connect with Dickson Igwe on Twitter and Facebook.